Eastern Initiative

The recent events raises no doubts we are facing a new stage of confrontation started with Israeli aggression on Iran now followed by US direct involvement. In the fog of war nothing is obvious but the fact that NATO lost the long forged image of fierce defender of international law it dared to play regardless of the logic of the previous events. Those who haven’t yet found it hard enough to share

belief in that forgery, now have no choice but ether give up or expose their bias. The public opinion in the Western countries became for a very first time in the last decade exposed to the bare facts no smoke screen of propaganda efforts can cover up. Once tired with prolonging war propaganda a significant portion of public opinion can no longer accept explanations provided through over three years. From the polls to mass demonstrations we can observe clear signs of rising concerns all over the Europe. The obvious inconsistency of the political narrative opened up the window for potential significant shift. On the other hand many NATO countries introduced structural obstacles to prevent any mass resistance being able to appear on the wider scale. The unofficial state of emergency introduced since 2022 is now in force for over three years. In the countries of so called “NATO flank” the civil liberties no longer apply to those who dare to contradict official narrative. The political life artificially animated by ranks of so called activist along with biased corrupted media struggle at the verge of credibility. Is no longer credible for a rising part of the society.

Now we may expect yet some brilliant sociotechnical maneuvers combined with repressions and more sophisticated forms of voice silencing. However, for us the basic question is whether this shift may result in forms of conscious resistance able to survive the harsh pressure and resilient to manipulation.

In these circumstances the most reasonable tactics seems to be emergence of multiple centers of resistance, capable to operate both solely or in a wider network, independent but interoperable and guided rather by sense of common goal rather than by any form of centralized guidance.

Every country and every nation creates unique conditions that always vary from country to country. Contemporary political vocabulary is no longer adequate to describe variety of motivations behind the resistance stances. The international level of cooperation can not and shall not replace the urgent task of proper diagnosis that can be accomplished only at the national and even more local levels. The network of resistance must consist the widest scope of motivations and the sole criteria of choice must be reduced to the most essential dilemma: the will and potential ability of every center to pay a contribution to common goal. The common goal is to disrupt the plans and scheduled agenda of our enemy – the imperialism.

I need to characterize the political panorama in Poland during and after the recent presidential elections that’s second round were held on the 1st of June. Many of you have been just only told the right conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki won against his liberal and pro-European counterpart Rafał Trzaskowski, supported by the liberals and pro-NATO left-wing parties. Widely hyped “shift to the right in the political sentiments in Poland” didn’t play the decisive factor thought. We need to realize the sequence of events that had taken place one by one. According to the public opinion polls Trzaskowski was set to win. His failure was a shock for media and liberal political elites.

While seeking the reasons in technical details in his campaign they only try to waterish the issue and hide it. The notorious anticommunist professional with the carrier to his candidature was his public activity as a head of Institute of National Remembrance, the state sponsored historical propaganda machine with the right of prosecuting even vocal opponents of its policy or narrative. I don’t even need to mention the political line presented was to aggravate both anticommunist and anti-Russian sentiment. However Nawrocki said he exclude sending Polish troops to Ukraine. Distancing himself from many voices laud formerly in his political camp he even publicly stated that there must be a place for Putin behind the negotiation table. He reiterated that firmly at finish of his campaign. The majority of Poles share this for various reason. Polish government led by liberals could only clam down opinion with the assurances that there are not such a plans. Trzaskowski was completely unable to declare anything more. Moreover, he continued anti-Russian rhetoric the way obviously excluding further possibilities of engaging in diplomatic talks with Russia in case the situation get changed. In Polish constitutional order President may have decisive voice in such question as he is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

The question whether Poland could play a rule in the potential escalation of the current proxy-war NATO is waging against Russia on the territory of Ukraine is still open. The situation on the Baltic Sea is tense. The Russian strategically important exclave – Kaliningrad and surrounding area is potential key to such an escalation. NATO Baltic states have already declared idea of transforming Baltic waters into a kind of internal NATO sea. They are trying different ways to create obstacles for Russian navigation and this is a very crucial issue for Russia. Any attempt cut Kaliningrad off of the mother Russian territory is the best way to provoke Russian reaction. Russia can not afford losing access to it’s territory and such a moves are blatant invitation to war if the force is used to make this dream true. This may trigger both marine and land war operations. 

Second lies in asymmetry of the territorial involvement of this war. While the NATO countries are involved with their whole territories, the battlefield territory is limited to Ukrainian and Russian. Before the deep strikes inside Russia started and as long as some countries somehow restricted their activity to the front lines these attacks are signaling a game changer. If this is being to be aggravated a full scale confrontation may be triggered. NATO is not just only an arm supplier for this war. It’s military infrastructure including satellites guidance, targets identification, intelligence and reconnaissance are actively involved, the presence of at least military instructors is hardly even hidden. The margins of “plausible deniability” are thin and getting thinner.

Another provocative concept that appears in the air is using Poland’s territory for interception of Russian missiles and create NATO-umbrella over the wester Ukraine to protect the logistical routes. Please keep in mind that Poland is a most important hub for transferring weapon and material assistance to the active conflict zone.

None of these scenarios will be decided in Warsaw. The political differences in Poland however may decide whether the Washington and Trump administration have a decisive word to say or it is not even required. The President Nawrocki may be perceived as the last one to hit the breaks in case liberal elites were somehow close to take action without Trump approval.

Dear comrades,

we need to understand that the hot phase of the war has already started. This war is being waged by all major NATO countries and subordinates, acting in coordination under a guidance of a hidden real decisive center. This war is set up to subordinate or destroy every single opponent of imperialism, to defeat and prevent further resistance. Should the imperialism ever be able to accomplish that, entire globe would get into their hands. The humanity is facing grave danger.

This have to be stopped with all possible means. We can never allow them to take the mankind as hostage. This is sacred duty of every free self-standing nation, of every nation struggling for it’s freedom, this is our sacred responsibility to the future generations.